Question about KC mm 65

[streptile]

Interesting statement.
Based on?

Hi guys,

First, let me say that I am not advising anyone to sell anything, I'm no expert on RKs, or the economics of collecting, or global finance. I don't think anyone should take what I say very seriously on this subject; it's entirely speculation, unleavened by science.

With that out of the way, I do think the prices of RKs will go down substantially for a few reasons. For one thing, they're not rare. Some makers are, it's true. But generally speaking, RK's are quite common. Their prices are high for one reason...

RK prices shot up dramatically with the advent of the internet. I think this increase was artificial. Dealers kept trying out higher and higher prices to see what they could get, and settled where they were about two years ago because that's what people would pay. The prices are based on nothing more than that. And, simply put, I suspect the number of people willing to pay these prices is shrinking. My evidence for this is anecdotal at best, but I read a few forums regularly, and there is a sentiment of, "enough is enough, bring this back down to earth." I mean, I see the higher-priced RKs sit and sit and sit on dealers' sites. Don't you? Thus I think there will be a correction, as there always is in these situations. After all, the intrinsic value of an RK is probably about $50. Everything else is circumstance.

Also, the economy is a factor. Even if we are on a steady uphill climb from here on out, the recent jolt has frightened many, and made almost everyone more prudent. No one wants to invest in something that's not a sure thing, so I imagine the guys who buy for investment will think twice after this past year. Even those of us who collect for the love of it will probably be unwilling to pour $14,000 into something that may go down in value. But $5,000? For love? Why not.

RKs have already come down some, and I think they will come down more to reach a level commensurate with their rarity and desirability. My best guess is right around $5,000. It's still high enough to honor the award itself, but not so much that no one will (or can) pay it. It's right around the right neighborhood with other awards that are rarer, but less sought after, which is always the equation we must consider.

I also think there will be increasing separation in price between makers and types. I bet the best ones -- attributed, Godets, zinc Junckers, etc., -- will stay up there in the stratosphere, while the K&Qs and S&Ls will drop the furthest.

[Les50]

As much as I would like to see prices drop like this as I'm still saving for my first KC I really can't see it happening sadly, I have been looking at KC prices over the last 4 or 5 years and all I can see is rapid rises and although some high priced KCs do sit on dealers sites for a long time many others sell very quickly even with the economic meltdown. Unless there is a massive economic disaster affecting the prices of everything I think the rises will continue, I shudder to think how much a good Juncker KC will cost in four or five years time..
Les

Hi guys,

First, let me say that I am not advising anyone to sell anything, I'm no expert on RKs, or the economics of collecting, or global finance. I don't think anyone should take what I say very seriously on this subject; it's entirely speculation, unleavened by science.

With that out of the way, I do think the prices of RKs will go down substantially for a few reasons. For one thing, they're not rare. Some makers are, it's true. But generally speaking, RK's are quite common. Their prices are high for one reason...

RK prices shot up dramatically with the advent of the internet. I think this increase was artificial. Dealers kept trying out higher and higher prices to see what they could get, and settled where they were about two years ago because that's what people would pay. The prices are based on nothing more than that. And, simply put, I suspect the number of people willing to pay these prices is shrinking. My evidence for this is anecdotal at best, but I read a few forums regularly, and there is a sentiment of, "enough is enough, bring this back down to earth." I mean, I see the higher-priced RKs sit and sit and sit on dealers' sites. Don't you? Thus I think there will be a correction, as there always is in these situations. After all, the intrinsic value of an RK is probably about $50. Everything else is circumstance.

Also, the economy is a factor. Even if we are on a steady uphill climb from here on out, the recent jolt has frightened many, and made almost everyone more prudent. No one wants to invest in something that's not a sure thing, so I imagine the guys who buy for investment will think twice after this past year. Even those of us who collect for the love of it will probably be unwilling to pour $14,000 into something that may go down in value. But $5,000? For love? Why not.

RKs have already come down some, and I think they will come down more to reach a level commensurate with their rarity and desirability. My best guess is right around $5,000. It's still high enough to honor the award itself, but not so much that no one will (or can) pay it. It's right around the right neighborhood with other awards that are rarer, but less sought after, which is always the equation we must consider.

I also think there will be increasing separation in price between makers and types. I bet the best ones -- attributed, Godets, zinc Junckers, etc., -- will stay up there in the stratosphere, while the K&Qs and S&Ls will drop the furthest.

[walter1010de]

Hi guys,

(...) For one thing, they're not rare. Some makers are, it's true. But generally speaking, RK's are quite common. Their prices are high for one reason...

RK prices shot up dramatically with the advent of the internet. I think this increase was artificial. Dealers kept trying out higher and higher prices to see what they could get, and settled where they were about two years ago because that's what people would pay. The prices are based on nothing more than that. And, simply put, I suspect the number of people willing to pay these prices is shrinking. My evidence for this is anecdotal at best, but I read a few forums regularly, and there is a sentiment of, "enough is enough, bring this back down to earth." (...)

RKs have already come down some, and I think they will come down more to reach a level commensurate with their rarity and desirability. My best guess is right around $5,000. It's still high enough to honor the award itself, but not so much that no one will (or can) pay it. It's right around the right neighborhood with other awards that are rarer, but less sought after, which is always the equation we must consider.

I also think there will be increasing separation in price between makers and types. I bet the best ones -- attributed, Godets, zinc Junckers, etc., -- will stay up there in the stratosphere, while the K&Qs and S&Ls will drop the furthest.

Trevor,
You have the right opinion on this special thing.
KCs are really not rare. With enough money You are able to buy within 5 minutes (Internet...) 10 ore more pieces.

And, for example, the preliminary KC award documents are at a price of € 2500,-- (Heer) - and they are each unique. A KC-holder could by a dozen KCs but he got only one award document, one entry in his Soldbuch and so on.
The documents are rare but, if You get them, comparable to the KC, "cheap".

It is much more difficult to get a good KC paper grouping than a mint Juncker KC. And You save money

So it could be that the price for KCs is artificially upheld now and it may be that KCs drop in their price soon.

Poor guy who bought the "cheap" KC at D. Niemann for the amount of appr. € 6000,-- on January, 29th, and has to sell it in about five years for the amount of $ 5000,-- or less (assumed the € to $ exchange rate will be like it now is).

In about 5 years we will meet here and will see...

Thank You all for the good discussion!

[nick-j]

I have a great article written by G.Williamson from "antiques,arms&militaria" published in Nov 79 in which he says that 7-8 years ago(1971-72) a genuine knights cross went for £50 and that now(1979)to quote"a mint example in its case might be given a price tag of well over £600,though this would be very expensive ,even by todays inflated standards" so i guess as has been said these awards just keep going up