Hannah's reich update wow

[Killerbee]

Well it is now 200 years since the Napoleonic wars and if anyone can show me the endless supply of originals from that era up for sale today at cheap prices then I am a willing buyer.

A lot of original Napoleonic Militaria has now been lost, much in the last 100 years. Sure not as many people collect it these days but this is balanced by the lower amount of good original items up for sale and thus prices are still very expensive,

Chris

Chris, so what you are saying is that the reason you don't find much original Napoleonic Militaria is because it "did" go out of fashion and that market crashed... no value, in the garbage it goes. So then goes the same with TR items... crash, and then in the trash. And then 100 years from now (when we are all dead), a few "guy/guys" may want some TR... but the TR supply will be greatly reduced because no one wanted or kept them... and thus what survived will command a nice price.. in 100 years... or so.

Did I miss something? I'm jesting somewhat... but this doesn't bode well for TR investors/dealers...

Jim

[Ian Hulley]

Dont like the K tab at all.A ways back Dr.Strangelove showed one with the proper K which is MUCH sharper in contrast.

The 2 opinions I personally would need to hear have not replied ....

Ian

[Killerbee]

I do not think this is ALWAYS so . . . take for instance WSS Officer visors - good one's . . . for a few years, not many were available - at least not like I recall a decade ago . . . and in the past couple of months, I have recognized more out there on the market again, than I have seen in a decade.

I do not think there are any absolute rules about this stuff . . . it all seems to go back-and-forth in trends and "fads", if you ask me.

Additionally, I think Martin is a decent fellow. What many forget, or may not know - he is a COLLECTOR as well . . . and likely no less guilty than any of us - buying at a price today, that he hopes to sell tomorrow for more . . . and use the profits to further fund his collection. How many of you can raise your hand and honestly say your actions differ from this?

I would agree Wyeth, it is not always so.

As Chris correctly said, demand for TR is “elastic”, which means this type of demand will rise or fall depending on the “price” of the good (demand for blood would be inelastic). IMO the TR market has already hit its pricing ceiling for most items, regardless of many dealers asking for more. Remember, one sale does not make a market. And although, TR supplies are a fixed quantity… they are becoming increasingly available. It has been a very long time since I’ve seen so much stuff out there… and this market action will only continue. Take for example SS helmets… I haven't seen so many in a long time and they don't seem to be really selling well. It is quite incredible IMO. Give it time, and what will follow is price adjustments due to an increase supply and reduced demand. The big question is “WHY IS AVAILABLE SUPPLY INCREASING?” IMO, the supply is increasing as people begin jumping ship and/or need to sale to cover their investments. This is common practice in any market.

Watch this YouTube vid on the MAX Show... very telling. Increase seller tables and flat number of buyers... formula for decreasing prices. Some would falsely assume increasing seller tables means an increase demand, however, it probably means the opposite. It can be a sign of desperation to dispose of items to recoup their investment now as the pressures to decrease prices increase. This happens in all markets. Further, it may also suggest that it maybe increasingly more difficult to sell utilizing other successful past methods. So get a table at the MAX in the hope to increase sales.

And when you add in the fact of transitioning out the old collectors in the next few years, these new supplies will exacerbate the increasing supply issue for dealers/investors. Prices have to come down. Remember, many of these old collectors I would categorize as TR hoarders. In that MAX video I see a very old group of collectors, which are not too happy… seeming very bothered and not wanting to be there... almost desperate, if that is the correct word. I know many of them have been “hoarding” product in an effort to control market share. Some guys in the vid even allude to it. Some having crazy amounts of this and that. When the need to divest or when they pass on, supply will increase even more and prices will fall due to it and lack of demand.

And to another point, I have also observed at these shows, and collecting in general, the cross selling/trading that goes on between all the dealers/collectors to make inventory. This buy/sale to each other has caused spiraling prices based not on true demand, but demand among a small group of self-interest individuals. This game of flipping back and forth of the same item is not a healthy market IMO. This is what we call an "inverted sale/demand pyramid", when you begin to remove some of the players in this scheme, the pyramid collapses on itself. Prices can’t continue to increase based on this silly horse trading. There is a point that these individuals can no longer acquire and sale with the same continued profit margin. They will and probably have hit the pricing celling, especially considering that there are more people leaving the hobby than entering IMO. No more piggy banking by buying/flipping to fund other stuff. But that is more of a gut feeling/observation.

Look at this thread to see a perfect example of this trading and pricing of an SS helmet among a small group of collectors. Crazy… buying and selling the same helmet back and forth… increase pricing… silly… we collectors are funny characters... lol


http://dev.wehrmacht-awards.com/foru...d.php?t=673887



<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/sD_-S8kE5Jg?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Personally, I don't know what is the big deal that demand and pricing is falling, or that the supply is increasing. All these things are positives to the hobby if you guys are so concerned with the hobby. Where equilibrium in pricing (supply and demand meet) is to be seen... but IMO it will be much lower. And if one feels none of this is good for the hobby, well I guess then it is all about the money, which I can understand... it is your livelihood at stake and not the hobby.

Also, before everyone start quoting well this or that sold for "x"... maybe rare or scarce items.. or high end items, well, they should... remember every item has their own demand curve. Some are more inelastic than others. Again, demand for blood, a heart transplant, or say cigarettes would be more inelastic than say a can of soda. People can live without soda.



Anyway, just some of my thoughts.

Jim

[90th Light]

Chris, so what you are saying is that the reason you don't find much original Napoleonic Militaria is because it "did" go out of fashion and that market crashed... no value, in the garbage it goes. So then goes the same with TR items... crash, and then in the trash. And then 100 years from now (when we are all dead), a few "guy/guys" may want some TR... but the TR supply will be greatly reduced because no one wanted or kept them... and thus what survived will command a nice price.. in 100 years... or so.

Did I miss something? I'm jesting somewhat... but this doesn't bode well for TR investors/dealers...

Jim

No Jim,

quite the opposite. Certainly the period after WW1 was not good due to the number of collectors or their sons now deceased. Equally however, some museum collections were destroyed or looted. Thus there was a period of repositioning between supply, demand and public sensitivity. Then slowly but surely the collecting of Napoleonic picked up and has continued to this day unabated, give or take what happened during WW2. Even the Russians took items out of German museums back to their museums. They still saw the historical value of it in 1945.

It has of course had flat periods now and then from 1950 to the present day. However, it has never callapsed. Even in the current recession from 2008 onwards, it is holding its prices and they are not cheap.

What is even more surprising is all the veterans are dead, their children and grandchildren are dead. Even the great grandchildren and beyond are dead. Certainly makes one wonder where all the emotional appeal and connection is coming from because they certainly did not teach it at school to me in the 1960's or 70's or anyone else I know in the 1980's 90's or 2000's ???

The level of reproductions also has a parallel with the collecting of German militaria. Some accurate reproduction Napoleonic items can make reasonable money in their own right these days.

Any way let the crash of German militaria prices roll on. There are plenty of things that I still want to buy and it all serves to give me more buying power .

I am sure Martin is reading this and his 75% off sale by the end of the year will confirm that those who think the end is near are right. In fact, hopefully I will be the only optimist left and I can make him an offer for the lot thus relieving him of the burden of having to get rid of it,

Chris

[Killerbee]

No Jim,

quite the opposite. Certainly the period after WW1 was not good due to the number of collectors or their sons now deceased. Equally however, some museum collections were destroyed or looted. Thus there was a period of repositioning between supply, demand and public sensitivity. Then slowly but surely the collecting of Napoleonic picked up and has continued to this day unabated, give or take what happened during WW2. Even the Russians took items out of German museums back to their museums. They still saw the historical value of it in 1945.

It has of course had flat periods now and then from 1950 to the present day. However, it has never callapsed. Even in the current recession from 2008 onwards, it is holding its prices and they are not cheap.

What is even more surprising is all the veterans are dead, their children and grandchildren are dead. Even the great grandchildren and beyond are dead. Certainly makes one wonder where all the emotional appeal and connection is coming from because they certainly did not teach it at school to me in the 1960's or 70's or anyone else I know in the 1980's 90's or 2000's ???

The level of reproductions also has a parallel with the collecting of German militaria. Some accurate reproduction Napoleonic items can make reasonable money in their own right these days.

Any way let the crash of German militaria prices roll on. There are plenty of things that I still want to buy and it all serves to give me more buying power .

I am sure Martin is reading this and his 75% off sale by the end of the year will confirm that those who think the end is near are right. In fact, hopefully I will be the only optimist left and I can make him an offer for the lot to relieve him of the burden of having to get rid of it,

Chris

Chris: That is interesting... and I agree to your observations... but the one point that I think is critical here is the question of whether or not these same individuals that are buying TR stuff, are of the same make up (age) that are buying other militaria? Our generation seems to be more in to history than most of the current younger folks. What are your thoughts with age groups?

In the past, TR collectors were young and have been collecting it for 15-35-40 years or more. We don't have that same young pool of individuals interested now to continue this TR market. It is an almost non-existing group of people. Thus, we have an up side down market pyramid. This alone will have a major impact on the TR market IMO. So are we at that point of the beginning of that down turn due to the age factor? I guess the big question is what is the "time table" of this correction and the following recovery... assuming there will be? That is a crystal ball question.

Also, I think we need to define "Collapse". IMO TR collecting will never collapse... say to zero... that will never happen. However, the TR market will correct itself to a more realistic market condition... a price adjustment. How large of a pricing correction is the big question... but my gut tells me it maybe significant.

Jim

[90th Light]

Chris: That is interesting... and I agree to your observations... but the one point that I think is critical here is the question of whether or not these same individuals that are buying TR stuff, are of the same make up (age) that are buying other militaria? Our generation seems to be more in to history than most of the current younger folks. What are your thoughts with age groups?

In the past, TR collectors were young and have been collecting it for 15-35-40 years or more. We don't have that same young pool of individuals interested now to continue this TR market. It is an almost non-existing group of people. Thus, we have an up side down market pyramid. This alone will have a major impact on the TR market IMO. So are we at that point of the beginning of that down turn due to the age factor? I guess the big question is what is the "time table" of this correction and the following recovery... assuming there will be? That is a crystal ball question.

Also, I think we need to define "Collapse". IMO TR collecting will never collapse... say to zero... that will never happen. However, the TR market will correct itself to a more realistic market condition... a price adjustment. How large of a pricing correction is the big question... but my gut tells me it maybe significant.

Jim

Hard to know Jim,

I asked a stamp dealer if he thought he was in real trouble. His reply was that they take up collecting later in life these days but people still collect stamps. On the whole the price of many stamps are holding.

Young people have many different values to me these days but in other ways they also do what I once did. The interest is still there. They learn about it from different sources ie internet, play station, X-box, history channel, air shows. Some even still read books. If you ask a classroom of 13 to 18 year olds about WW2, they will talk back with facts, interest and knowledge but they do it their way and it is not always from our perspective. This I know from hard fought experience.

The bigger problem is it being politically correct or appropriate to talk to them about it. That political correctnes and taboo aspect has a way of creating its own ongoing interest however.

Prices are correcting themselves, no doubt. They are not dropping that much. Try offering Martin 50% if you do not believe me. May be he will drop 10%, even 20% on some items but that would be it. He will find a buyer if not you. Just a question of 1 day, week, month or year. Not much lasts past a year. He can probably still make more selling this stuff than putting his money in the bank. Lets not forget that.

Overall things have held up a lot better than I was expecting in 2008. It is still very expensive and holding. Things are selling, many are just not going up like crazy but equally they are not going down. The sell time is longer.

Chris

[TomH]

Though Martin is a good dealer, prices are on the high side.
It is a tragedy for this forum that quality stuff does not sell on the estand.
Are the pay off and lay away plans the secret on todays market?
I doubt it has got to do with the honesty of the seller. Grant had a very good reputation.

//Felix

Felix, forgive my pedantic correction but Grant has a very good reputation and I would regard him as one of the experts in the TK field.

The point made elsewhere in the thread about the high prices is true but remember with consignment items these are set by the seller not the dealer. Also, would these prices seem as high to our US colleagues were the exchange rate say $1.20 to the Pound rather than $1.56? I know I bought a lot a few years ago when the Pound was pushing $2 because it was so affordable - a lot of it has gone as it was stuff I bought on a whim that I didn't really want to keep - and guess what - I probably did make a few quid when I sold it and the exchange rate was back to $1.40 - $1.50.

Back to the tabs... Wewelsburg is it just the K you don't like or the whole tab? To me the skull looks perfectly executed - the K, I agree is a little sloppy.

thanks

Tom

[PMan]

Recent show

The Wilmington Ohio Valley Military Show is now in it's second day.
This is a rather large show, but smaller than the MAX and SOS.
An SS collector summary: I personally had to look long and hard for anything worth bringing home. I did find a nice SP40 skull in aluminum which was a highlight.
General prices were through the roof. The good, rare stuff is not being
offered, at least at reasonable prices. SS daggers were available. Chain-link prices were 7-9k depending on condition. Hope you find this actual SS relics market report useful. I went home with most of the money I wanted to spend. No signs of a market collapse in Wilmington Ohio, USA.
Best regards, Peter

[Thorsten B.]

Peter,

Thank you for that actual market report.
So business as usual outside and I am not surprised.

And Jim: thank you for these cool theory models - nonetheless I am happy that any market (means: reality) is being made by collectors and not by analysts.

Still not investing in gold.

[Asper]

The fact is that most also goes unsold.... That has been a broad observations at all shows. To me the true yardstick of where prices are headed is without a doubt estand. I think we all know what that means given the recent consistent trend.

My experience dealing with Martin has always been positive, no doubt he often moves great stuff.

Cheers,

Asper

[PMan]

Unsold?

The fact is that most also goes unsold.... That has been a broad observations at all shows.

Asper

Yes, the same overpriced or non-desirable items. I swear I recall seeing those same "unsold" pieces since 1999. This is not anything new!

[BrianK]

Fat chance of interesting the young citizens of the US in collecting Napoleonic Militaria.

[90th Light]

Fat chance of interesting the young citizens of the US in collecting Napoleonic Militaria.

Hello Brian,

not living in the USA, I can not comment but there are some collectors out here in New Zealand and Australia who do collect it. Thus I would be surprised if America does not have its fair share of such collectors.

However, what does surprise me is the growing lack of interest or empathy about the American Civil War. One could argue, the issues of that war between the Federal government and State governments is still not far below the surface even today. Plus I believe it is taught as part of the school curriculum. Yet we see an increasing attitude of apathy, no interest and not my problem especially among young Americans who I meet.

Perhaps those who collect Napoleonic could teach us all something about maintaining collecting momentum in a certain period of history over time,

Chris

[BrianK]

I did meet one 30 yr old man the other day who is interested in collecting Civil War memorbilia. He is the first person I've met of any age who expressed such an interest.

[PMan]

Younger collectors

I did meet one 30 yr old man the other day who is interested in collecting Civil War memorbilia. He is the first person I've met of any age who expressed such an interest.

There are many. Go to the Kassel show and Cenay.
Collectors and dealers.