Dagger market crashing??

[starvinmarvin]

In a recent thread found here: http://http://dev.wehrmacht-awards.com/forums/showthread.php?t=970973

Member JimW stated that certain parts of the dagger market have "crashed" due to the market being flooded with fakes.

I'm wondering what others in the hobby think about this topic. From what I can see, the very educated community here has no problem ferreting out the fakes with nothing more than good quality photos.

So what do you all think, is our terrific hobby doomed?
Will the value of our cherished artifacts be lost due to the reproductions?

Thank you for your thoughts!

[soonerhayden]

From what I've noticed german everything has been in a slight decrease. What I believe is due to not as much interest as there was back then, fakes, and newer generations just believe this hobby is too expensive also another factor may be media as they tend to show us to be negative which may scare others from collecting.


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[JimW]

The problem is not so much the educated collecting community, rather the casual collector/ buyer who trusts people. In the case of the specific rare, non German dagger we were discussing, there is a general pattern. The reproduction shows up for sale and is similar to the original but a very rare dagger that most people know little about. The first several reproductions bring a high price. Collectors such as ourselves post the warning on the internet, but it still takes time for the truly gullible to stop buying them. Then, even after several years we still have knowledgeable dealers vouching for them.

This exact scenario played out on the Latvian dagger type being discussed and this type of dishonesty drives away buyers.

To me there is no question that there is a cost to all collectors from the fraud that takes place constantly in this hobby.

[BobI]

The problem is not fakes, the problem is economics. One landmark was when the stock market crashed in 08, then again when the Euro and Ruble fell 4 or so years ago. As a dealer these were very defining moments in the health of the market.
The market was in a bubble for many years, basically before I was born. Bubbles always pop, militaria is still stronger then most antiques and collectibles.
I am glad to see prices come down!
Bob

[TWS]

I don't track dagger prices closely enough to comment with authority on any trends there, but I see our hobby in general facing some challenges.


1. It seems the average age of collectors of TR relics is steadily increasing. Less younger collectors are entering the hobby. Some large collections have hit the market due to the mortality of the owner and I think that may accelerate a little.
2. Less younger collectors are entering the hobby because A. The fakery and bull**** is probably daunting to some young people or even older people who want to collect but are scared off because it takes ever increasing amounts of study to avoid getting ripped off. B. The ever increasing prices are putting all but the most basic items out of reach of younger people - although prices may soon come down as a result of less collectors in the hobby and older, large collections hitting the market. In another decade or so it may just be a small cohort of us "fat old rich men" left to buy this stuff.


I know those two points incorporate ideas already floated here, but want to throw in my 2 cents in my own words as to how I see it.

[BobI]

This age and "fakes" argument has been shouted since I started collecting about 39 years ago. It is not true and there are tons of young collectors out there, there are reasons you do not see or notice them until they are older. To really notice these trends you have to eat, breath and drink this hobby for a living as I did for a very long time.
Best Wishes,
Bob

[starvinmarvin]

This age and "fakes" argument has been shouted since I started collecting about 39 years ago. It is not true and there are tons of young collectors out there, there are reasons you do not see or notice them until they are older. To really notice these trends you have to eat, breath and drink this hobby for a living as I did for a very long time.
Best Wishes,
Bob

BobI,

Could you clarify you statement "fakes argument"? I'm not sure I understand what you are saying.

Thank you

[N.C. Wyeth]

The Pom-Pom's are great . . . but let's get Real.

This age and "fakes" argument has been shouted since I started collecting about 39 years ago. It is not true and there are tons of young collectors out there, there are reasons you do not see or notice them until they are older. To really notice these trends you have to eat, breath and drink this hobby for a living as I did for a very long time.
Best Wishes,
Bob

Give it another ten years, Bob - and I bet you won't find as many people like us, who "eat, breath and drink this hobby for a living" . . . face it - if we aren't now, we are soon to become one of the fewer "Old Guy's" that still do this kind of thing . . . and with Luck, will still be able to enjoy it. The World is evolving - as are those that are being born into it . . . be it for better or for worse. It is not just economic factors affecting what we enjoy - open your eyes, look around, and I bet you will be able to [honestly ] point at other factors shaping this narrative. It will never completely go away - but I am convinced those that participate and find the same amount of pleasure from it as us, will inevitably continue to dwindle.

[BobI]

Hi Guys!
When I was little the old men would say 1. there is no new blood entering the hobby. 2. The fakes are too good and 3. The prices are too high!
That is when a Knights Cross was about 300 dollars, chained SS were 400 or so SAs were 100ish and so on.
Gailen David and I had this talk 20 years ago. There are tons of new and young collectors, times have changed. Now they are on face book and other places. Guys don't start hitting shows until they are older and have a more solid financial ability to travel and buy something for their collection. Many claim there is no interest in the 3rd Reich, if that were so why would they still make movies and video games based on this time period?
This same argument is argued in other collectible areas too. In some cases it is true, other cases it is not. Don't you guys find it strange most of the antique and collectible markets turned down at the landmarks I mention in my previous post? How could the masses decide at the same time to stop collecting and crash the prices?
The second the tax cuts took place in the US dealers did see a pick up in their sales. It will take time for the economy to improve and the money to trickle down, we still need our factories back to recreate our middle class. When and if this happens we will see the prices increase dramatically again, we will see.
Bob

[thebig]

Hi starvinmarvin,
to understand if the market of German knives fell, try to find and buy a good dagger. The price will show you if the market is crushed.
Best,
Oleg.

[BobI]

Try selling one, unless something really spectacular, not easy!

[damasco]

And here we go again with another chicken little thread!!!!!!! The sky is falling . the sky is falling..
This gets so old Just pull your heads out of the sand.. Collect what you like and what you UNDERSTAND AND KNOW

[BobI]

Not falling but I think there was a reset on prices. At least on the average stuff, rare keeps going up!
Bob

[thebig]

Try selling one, unless something really spectacular, not easy!

If a piece a good one is, it will be also fast sold. I see that in Germany, for example.

[damasco]

Not falling but I think there was a reset on prices. At least on the average stuff, rare keeps going up!
Bob

Of course prices we nuts for the common stuff.. Yes REAL good stuff is hard to find but is easy to sell.. The key word is REAL.. And there is a lot of unpublished period information out there yet on daggers and swords not known to the collecting world..
This type of thread pops up quarterly it seems like...