State of the Hobby re: Cloth Headgear

[Jos L C]

Well, certain things seem to breed "welcome back to earth", if not too late ..

The only thing we've to fear is fear ourselfs ..

The lust for money is tremendous these days and the impact is starting to show and grow.

IMO, this forum is only 15% active as it ever was .., probably holiday season, great film on TV or whatever we make of it ..
Another option maybe, most people finally start to realize the madness of all this and move on, I know a couple of 30 already..
I've become quite a loner in my area, only the last 3 years ...
If fun turns into pain, game is over ..

It's not boredom, lack of interest and all this all of a sudden, it's a more serious problem ..

... but if we listen carefully to some experts, all these hard core people will be easily replaced by new blood, the youngsters of the future, with loaded wallets and great spirit .., so no sweat ..

Ask those youngsters, if you can find them ... instead dream on ..

Jos.

[wayne gosley]

I am waiting to see what happens to the market prices, when the collectors from the 50's, 60's 70's even the 80's decide to start selling up collections, seeking to add retirement funds to the bank account, There must be a huge amount of items globally, sitting in old collections, look a the amount of gear manions sold, not including what sold at shows, and what was picked up from the vets.

All the comments already mentioned from everyone, are valid, IMO, maybe the time has come for a market self correction? as the finance guys say. When the economy is booming, people spend high dollars on overpriced items, then the economy changes, and the market corrects itself. I have seen it here in australia, in the housing and muscle car market, cars brought for $175K in 2003 (when the price of house boomed) now lucky to get$ $85-100k, if they can get a buyer.

Chris, I haven't seen anything of quality in the cloth headgear for offer for awhile. Don't know why? LOOKING FOR A NICE SADDLE SHAPED FLIGHT SECTION WHITE TOP, if you have one for sale anyone?

I am sure Jos would share in my comments, ( I hope the desirable/rare LW flight gear would become more affordable).

Kind regards
Wayne

[stonemint]

I am waiting to see what happens to the market prices, when the collectors from the 50's, 60's 70's even the 80's decide to start selling up collections, seeking to add retirement funds to the bank account, There must be a huge amount of items globally, sitting in old collections, look a the amount of gear manions sold, not including what sold at shows, and what was picked up from the vets.

All the comments already mentioned from everyone, are valid, IMO, maybe the time has come for a market self correction? as the finance guys say. When the economy is booming, people spend high dollars on overpriced items, then the economy changes, and the market corrects itself. I have seen it here in australia, in the housing and muscle car market, cars brought for $175K in 2003 (when the price of house boomed) now lucky to get$ $85-100k, if they can get a buyer.

Chris, I haven't seen anything of quality in the cloth headgear for offer for awhile. Don't know why? LOOKING FOR A NICE SADDLE SHAPED FLIGHT SECTION WHITE TOP, if you have one for sale anyone?

I am sure Jos would share in my comments, ( I hope the desirable/rare LW flight gear would become more affordable).

Kind regards
Wayne

Wayne, you bring up a good point on quality. Most of the items being offered on the Estand (as well as dealer sites) are above-average to average in terms of condition.

During the heyday pre-recession years, mint to minty high-quality visors were all over the place. However, you rarely see any for sale any more. My theory is that most are hanging on to the really good stuff waiting for those 2006-2007 values to come back.

[salt*creek]

[QUOTE=wayne gosley;5911127]I am waiting to see what happens to the market prices, when the collectors from the 50's, 60's 70's even the 80's decide to start selling up collections, seeking to add retirement funds to the bank account, There must be a huge amount of items globally, sitting in old collections, look a the amount of gear manions sold, not including what sold at shows, and what was picked up from the vets.

I believe this is already happening. At the West Coast Militaria show a few weeks back I saw an amazing amount of inventory. I counted no less than a dozen NO B.S. real SS visor caps, at least 7 or 8 SS smocks, about 15 SS sidecaps, piles of heer trousers and tunics, approx 20 real M 43's both SS and Heer and more mint
SS and heer helmets than I have ever seen in one place. There were helmets, caps and uniforms that you would recognize from books on the subject. This is a small show, but there was a very high ratio of great items.
As you guys have stated earlier, very few new collectors and prices seemed to be really high. Items priced fairly seemed to move, but all the high end items I mentioned above were still there at the end of the 3rd day.
I know for a fact that some of the older dealers were offering their private collections. Retirement, other interests, old age?
I think we are seeing a generation of collections coming out at the same time and the owners trying to cash out at high prices before they run out of of time or money.

[Crusader17]

[QUOTE=salt*creek;5911902]

I am waiting to see what happens to the market prices, when the collectors from the 50's, 60's 70's even the 80's decide to start selling up collections, seeking to add retirement funds to the bank account, There must be a huge amount of items globally, sitting in old collections, look a the amount of gear manions sold, not including what sold at shows, and what was picked up from the vets.

I believe this is already happening. At the West Coast Militaria show a few weeks back I saw an amazing amount of inventory. I counted no less than a dozen NO B.S. real SS visor caps, at least 7 or 8 SS smocks, about 15 SS sidecaps, piles of heer trousers and tunics, approx 20 real M 43's both SS and Heer and more mint
SS and heer helmets than I have ever seen in one place. There were helmets, caps and uniforms that you would recognize from books on the subject. This is a small show, but there was a very high ratio of great items.
As you guys have stated earlier, very few new collectors and prices seemed to be really high. Items priced fairly seemed to move, but all the high end items I mentioned above were still there at the end of the 3rd day.
I know for a fact that some of the older dealers were offering their private collections. Retirement, other interests, old age?
I think we are seeing a generation of collections coming out at the same time and the owners trying to cash out at high prices before they run out of of time or money.

Hard to argue with this. Time will tell.

[wayne gosley]

I think the next 5-10 years in the collecting field, will be very interesting, for 3 factors,

1. Very few new collectors coming in this field. (less buyers)

2. A ageing collecting community. (more sellers)

3. I personally believe that we are close to a global financial meltdown of economies. I NOT AN ALARMIST, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF POINTERS TO THIS especially recently in the EU . (which could mean little money available for luxuries, .i.e collecting).

Whilst I like to collect I am cautious in the amount I spent on one particular item and if the asking price is too high, I pass and play the waiting game for another and most of the time I able to secure the same type of item, in the same condition for what I am prepared to pay. I don't let my emotions come into in it. ( a little hard to do at times.)

I have adopted this collecting strategy, because in the back of my mind I think to myself (that one day i may need to resell this item, can I hopefully recoup what i paid for it)


Has anyone noticed that there is an amazing amount of daggers(in wonderfully condition) available for sale all the time, all very affordable, maybe we should be collecting daggers

Sorry for all the emotives, I rarely used them, but in this instance, why not.


Kind regards
Wayne

[BPA-Paul]

I think the next 5-10 years in the collecting field, will be very interesting, for 3 factors,

1. Very few new collectors coming in this field. (less buyers)

2. A ageing collecting community. (more sellers)

3. I personally believe that we are close to a global financial meltdown of economies. I NOT AN ALARMIST, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF POINTERS TO THIS especially recently in the EU . (which could mean little money available for luxuries, .i.e collecting).

Kind regards
Wayne

I have to agree with your thinking, especially the first one...less collectors in the future for sure the younger generation just dont have that level of passion and interest in WWII history,
the sons and grandsons of veterens will be the last to have any interest, there certainly will be less collectors in the future IMO.

[ROBB]

Sounds like life, apart from the tight shorts and mullets is grim in Australia ( its going to get grimmer when the Lions arrive ) . We have spent the last 10 years going collecting mad and now we have everything so we don't really need to buy anything new . Rob


Oh yes btw house prices are rising here in SE England and New York , share prices are rising things are looking up .

[wayne gosley]

Hi Robb, That is life, my mullett has long gone the hair is a little thinner these days, Our next housing boom cycle should be in 2016, regional house price will rise approx 40%, being the approx medium house price to $450k.
I feel sorry for the younger generations to come, life is going to be hard, not only to purchase a house, but even paying the rent.

Re: the lions, good luck,

Cheers
Wayne

[90th Light]

Whilst I agree that there are real risks in the world today, there is are also some amazing opportunies.

But there has always been risks and profit is the return for taking them. If you want a collection that is going to increase in value then risk might be one of the ingredients that is needed. The real question is how much risk should one expose one self to at any one time ???

A very successful investor summed it up the other day when I commented that the market is down again and the price of antiques is going to the dogs;

He replied, " I know exactly what you mean so many buying opportunities "

His approach to all of this and this also includes his antique collection;

" Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying "

If you can buy with in 10% of a low and sell within 10% of a high, you will be very successful no matter what market you are in. All markets go through ups and downs, highs and lows. The militaria market was over-due for one in 2008 and it has now happened. Big deal, adapt or die.

But it has only happened in some areas, and no where near to the extent many were expecting. This is not a collapsed market, this is a market that leveled off and selling time has increased because one of the largest groups of collectors in the world got hit by one of the biggest economic storms since 1929.

However that was 5 years ago and in another 5 years will the USA be singing a different tune ??? Just as Russia did in 1989 when compared with today.

Will the declining number of young collectors crash the price of German Militaria ???

Not necessarily, because the amount of original items still to be found is also in decline. Several items or entire collections are lost each year at an increasing rate ( keep in mind, I write this having seen one of NZ's largest cities go through a major earthquake and what was lost there. Then there what was lost to fire ) There is a self balance going on in this market and no one here is talking about the rate at which the finite supply of original pre-May 1945 items is dropping.

Here is a bit more food for thought in all of this from Jerry Webman;


"Investors often live in a state of denial. In the good times, we’ve seen investors reject the notion that the party will ever end. In the bad times, we’ve seen investors cling to the belief that things will never get better. I’ve seen recent surveys which suggest that, some three years after the official end of the Great Recession, three out of four Americans still believe that the economy is in a downturn 1 with most Americans expecting the economy to be worse next year, 2 irrespective of Congress’ last minute dealings to prevent income tax hikes on millions of middle class Americans. The fact that the economy continues to recover is indisputable even as the pace of growth continues to disappoint.

And there’s the rub. The lingering aftermath of a financial crisis has left us an unacceptable situation. Who among us is willing to tolerate high unemployment, anemic wage growth, growing income inequality, and to boot, a debt burden that is on track to equal the total output of the U.S. economy by the end of this decade?

Investing is a forward-looking exercise, however, not a backward- or even coincident-looking one. The market, having rallied sharply in three of the last four years, has accepted that our collective circumstances continue to get better, even as the utopian state remains maddeningly out of reach. As investors grasp for reasons not to put money to work, the economy improves and the markets continue to pass them by. With deference to the late Jerry Garcia, it’s when life looks like easy street that there is danger at your door. In other words, complacency is hazardous. With many investors still focusing on the bad guys in Washington or Wall Street, or remembering how cool it was when their home values appreciated every day, complacency now seems scarce—and that’s a good thing. Hard as it is to accept the plodding pace of economic improvement, that’s precisely what investors must do."

Chris

[Tim O'Keefe]

Its the interest that is lacking not the dollars.

Lets face it, the generations that have grown up since the 90's have very little interest in WWII, its just ancient history to many of them sadly. With all the distractions of the modern world to amuse, why would/should they ?

However, from the narrow DAK/tropical cloth headgear perspective, The demand far outweighs the current supply situation (just like in Afrika). So price's continue to hold firm, and even increase for that fabled soutached M40. While the sidecaps and tropenhelms have leveled off recently. Except many of the sidecaps have become tainted which does not help the situation.

As the older collectors pass on their collections to the younger guys there will be some opportunities to get some killer items moved, but how long will that last ?

& Chris nice reference to Jerry, i always knew you were abit of a Deadhead, keep on truckin'

[pablo10]

some very good points i have read so far and i see the following:
i do think their is a lack of youth coming into the collecting market and one must remember when coins or stamps were all the rage for the youth of yesteryear but today its hard to compete vs the xbox/play station for the young or overseas travel for the 20s vs german militaria that in reality sits in corner of a house or war room.


i do know of a some large collections that have been sold in the last 2 years and also of a couple of large ones that will be broken up as its been said some a cashing up now as economic times are grim.


anyway our hobby is at a slower point but it is not dead nor will it die for a while, sure prices should and will drop on some items that to be honest are very over priced and some of the blame can be put to speculators who in the past have bought militaria just like art or housing knowing they can make a large profits on it when times have been good for selling but if these returns are not here then speculators stop and that is good news for real collectors but not good if you are out to make a large profit and their is a lot of sellers who are in this game for that reason.

[90th Light]

Chris nice reference to Jerry, i always knew you were abit of a Deadhead, keep on truckin'

Such reference to the "Grateful Dead" Tim, certainly brings back memories

" Deadhead or Dead Head is a name given to fans of the American jam band, the Grateful Dead. In the 1970s, a number of fans began travelling to see the band in as many shows or festival venues as they could. With large numbers of people thus attending strings of shows, a community developed. Deadheads developed their own idioms and slang. "

However they might not be serious enough for Jerry.

Another thing all of us need to keep in mind, what is perceived to be a common items today is often seen as rare tomorrow. I wonder how many EK2's, SA daggers and belt buckles dealers have sold since 2008. To date however, I have not met one dealer who had trouble selling such items because there was no shortage of collectors or the public in general who could afford/ wanted them. Lets not be too tough on the more common items and the rates at which these turnover today for lower but still slightly profitable margins. Such profit margins on common items may be humble but they are higher in many cases than what one could earn on that money in the bank.

Even tropical sidecaps from the " Beehive " find ( perceived to be plentiful and less desirable than other tropical caps ) are disappearing/ butched at a steady rate ( latest, cut them up to make top quality reproduction DAK shoulder boards ). How many collectors have entered the tropical cap market, starting with one of them ? Slowly but surely, such entry level prices and items have a way of drying up over time,

Chris

[Tim O'Keefe]

Such reference to the "Grateful Dead" Tim, certainly brings back memories

" Deadhead or Dead Head is a name given to fans of the American jam band, the Grateful Dead. In the 1970s, a number of fans began travelling to see the band in as many shows or festival venues as they could. With large numbers of people thus attending strings of shows, a community developed. Deadheads developed their own idioms and slang. "

However they might not be serious enough for Jerry.

Another thing all of us need to keep in mind, what is perceived to be a common items today is often seen as rare tomorrow. I wonder how many EK2's, SA daggers and belt buckles dealers have sold since 2008. To date however, I have not met one dealer who had trouble selling such items because there was no shortage of collectors or the public in general who could afford/ wanted them. Lets not be too tough on the more common items and the rates at which these turnover today for lower but still slightly profitable margins. Such profit margins on common items may be humble but they are higher in many cases than what one could earn on that money in the bank.

Even tropical sidecaps from the " Beehive " find ( perceived to be plentiful and less desirable than other tropical caps ) are disappearing/ butched at a steady rate ( latest, cut them up to make top quality reproduction DAK shoulder boards ). How many collectors have entered the tropical cap market, starting with one of them ? Slowly but surely, such entry level prices and items have a way of drying up over time,

Chris

Santa Fe shows from '85 are top drawer But the Frost Amph/Stanford shows were always a fav

Very sad about the beehive caps abused in so many ways.....

[BrianK]

[QUOTE=salt*creek;5911902]

I am waiting to see what happens to the market prices, when the collectors from the 50's, 60's 70's even the 80's decide to start selling up collections, seeking to add retirement funds to the bank account, There must be a huge amount of items globally, sitting in old collections, look a the amount of gear manions sold, not including what sold at shows, and what was picked up from the vets.

I believe this is already happening. At the West Coast Militaria show a few weeks back I saw an amazing amount of inventory. I counted no less than a dozen NO B.S. real SS visor caps, at least 7 or 8 SS smocks, about 15 SS sidecaps, piles of heer trousers and tunics, approx 20 real M 43's both SS and Heer and more mint
SS and heer helmets than I have ever seen in one place. There were helmets, caps and uniforms that you would recognize from books on the subject. This is a small show, but there was a very high ratio of great items.
As you guys have stated earlier, very few new collectors and prices seemed to be really high. Items priced fairly seemed to move, but all the high end items I mentioned above were still there at the end of the 3rd day.
I know for a fact that some of the older dealers were offering their private collections. Retirement, other interests, old age?
I think we are seeing a generation of collections coming out at the same time and the owners trying to cash out at high prices before they run out of of time or money.

I always knew that the SS cloth headgear was too common to justify the high prices asked recently. When run of the mill Alg. SS visor caps went from $2000 to $6000 I knew it must be some sort of a bubble. It's the lemming mentality - let's all collect SS caps when there are rarer & more interesting caps to collect.