The Soft-HEADGEAR Market in 10-30 years

[stonemint]

Gents--
There is a long thread on the Community Forum regarding the overall hobby over the next 10-30 years ( http://dev.wehrmacht-awards.com/foru...d.php?t=795560 ) .

However, the thread is an overview of the hobby in general, and does not focus on specific areas of collecting (or organizations).

I thought it would be interesting to address this from a soft-headgear perspective as to where you see the hobby going from a soft-headgear specialists point of view.

[drbill]

still viable

I think it will still be viable and fairly strong. I think after the recent "price adjustment" that the collectibles and antiques market has made in general in most areas, that even common items in decent condition will remain in demand. After the recent price adjustment, I'm seeing a few collectors returning to the field. Many had quit when the prices began to skyrocket 10 to 15 years ago and peaking around 08-09. As many collectors told me TR
collecting was becoming an elitist/rich person hobby and was no longer competitive and fun. I think the price corrections have helped re-energize some collectors and begin to draw in fresh blood, so to speak.

Today's present market is definitely a "buyers" paradise. Most items except for very rare, one of a kind pieces are down 30-40% over the boom years.

[Robert Shoaf]

As far as headgear buyers' sources go, certainly the Estand reflects lowering of prices for most common caps, infantry, artillery. pionier, LW flight & flak, etc.
The 'word" has, of course, seemed to have reached dealers, who, by and large, still post inflated, and to my mind, ludicrous prices for visor caps.
One "major "dealer lists, among other whoppers, Heer artillery offr at $1500, infantry enlisted at $ 950, general staff at $ 3895, GBJ ( no edelweiss) at $ 3695, and panzer officer at $ 2995.
These prices should be HALF what is listed, but I won't kid myself into remotely believing it will. Just WHO will pay these prices??
I did not see many bargains at the SOS, and I'm dubious if they will exist in large numbers at the MAX, but hope spings eternal!
Given the advancing age of many, if not most collectors, myself included, my sense is that 'common" items will likely stagnate in price, if not actually drop a bit further.
However, as in pretty much any collecting field, the rare and unique will maintain high prices over time.
Perhaps it's not a good analogy, but currently, the collector car market is seeing rapid price appreciation in those rare and limited production vehicles, while the more common cars are not seeing much price appreciation, and some have dropped in value.
For example, low production 50's & 60's Ferraris continue to skyrocket in price, along with genuine Shelby Cobras, Mercedes-Benz 300 Sl's, etc., etc.
More common muscle cars, and British mass produced sports cars prices languish, with exceptions for uncommon examples.
Will the younger generation pick up the mantle of we older collectors? Personally, I have serious doubts, but that's just my opinion.

Bob Shoaf

[Daniel.S]

the SS-shiffchens will be totaly dead......

[KC1]

Good question Stoney - the market is definitely soft now but only if we compare it to pricing from the last 10 -12 years. However, I do see more advanced collectors leaving the hobby, some due to age, as well as some believing the hobby isn't what is was 10 - 20 yrs ago. There is some truth in the later part of my last sentence as technology has moved us all into the internet age where virtual friendships among collectors is the norm, dealer prices are outlandishly excessive and fakes/reproductions are a minefield. Forums have been a positive as well as a negative in some instances which leaves many new collectors confused and afraid questioning if they should really venture forward. Many collectors, like myself, had fathers that fought in the WWII that spurred our foray and interest into collecting whereas new collectors see the hobby as an investment opportunity. All these issues play a big part as to why our hobby is softer today.

For myself, I still love collecting my Erel visors and TR buckles. I know what I want to see in my visors and condition is #1 for me. As a collector, if there is a visor for sale that I don't have then price is secondary; although it does play a part. There have been many occasions where I have paid more than I will most likely receive when I do decide to sell the cap but the joy for me is owning a beautiful piece of history. Why do I emphasis condition as #1; because in 20 yrs it should still command near the price as when I purchased it. Well preserved items tend to hold value more so than poor conditioned items.

I try to stay away from most dealers although there are less than a handful I would buy from as I trust their judgment on items, their reputation, their return policies and typically can talk to them about pricing. As stated earlier, some dealers just don't have a clue and pricing of TR items are prohibitive. Some dealers have gotten great publicity from their efforts causing swelled egos and further inflated prices.

Bottom line - I can't predict the future as to where the market for our hobby will be in 5- 10 years but as with anything we collect there is only one constant - an item is only as valuable as someone is willing to pay for it.

[stonemint]

Good points, all.

My first comment would be, if the market is collapsing, where is all the mint stuff? Most that is being posted on the estands of forums and dealer sites is average to above-average condition stuff. I recall much more in the way of crispy inventory being available before the Great Recession of 2007.

Can't be a function of pricing--I would happily pay 2007 prices. It would appear that most collectors are confident in the market value of such items and are hanging on to them....

[jayjay198666]

nicely worn headgear, without damage seems to be holding prices, SS caps with wear seem few and far between, many never coming on the open market but traded between collectors privately.

[james m]

From what I see in my own area of speciality (Firearms) prices of really excellent condition example s of Lugers,Colts and others have continued to go right up in value even after 2008.
The post about small production Ferrari's above is right on and a 275 GTB NART Spyder set a new auction record last year at over $23 Million.
It's also been my observation that there's a scarcity of excellent condition classic firearms on the market right now leading me to believe that many collectors are holding them and expect pricing to go even higher.
These observations are probably of minimal usefulness to a German headgear collector but I still maintain top grade collectibles have usually done very well over time.
Jim

[jacquesf]

The prices on anything average headgear, actually across the board, has come way down. That suits me personally as I like worn but not abused items.Only the mint and rare items has held their value and will continue to do so.

Strangely however that has not registered in the minds of the dealers.

I also think that is is due to fewer buyers being around. You might luck out as a seller if that spesific buyer is around when you list your item that just happen to be his "want". Otherwise it will sit or you will have to drop the price to where a willing buyer is. So timing and luck also have an influence.

[wayne gosley]

My thoughts are visors caps especially are very representative of the German army, they are attractive to look at, display well ,without taking up to much space generally. So they will be ok, m43,will ok for guys looking to deck out mannequins. side caps not as popular but still will sell. this is all depending on price affordability.

Looking at the e-stand across the board, for the past 18 months, it is mostly dead, looking at the cloth headgear section in particular, prices they dropped and for the most part things are not selling, things I have seen, for example, a nice HG visor 1100usd unsold, Nice LW officers visors, $1100 unsold. Pzr Officers $1200, not selling.

So obviously the prices still need to come down more.

I firmly believe that unless prices get back to at least the early-mid 90's prices, or earlier, items then presented for sale, will sell quickly, eg of 1990 prices, a nice waffen ss officer cap was 2200 aud, nice m40 sd ss helm $1800ss em dagger, $850aud.(the majority could afford that and things moved quickly, at here in Australia, at those prices).

For me, I have been fortunate to have had the opportunity to experience some of the higher end items in headgear and awards, especially in visor caps, when they were mostly affordable, but if I wanted to buy them now, there is no way in hell that I would,at the prices they are offered for now, (even though I can afford it,). Why? Simply because I find it is ridiculous, to pay the prices, based on the 4 points every knows about, unaffordability,no new blood, older collectors releasing collections, at some point in time, with many multiple items,(of what we call at present, hard to get items, i.e ss helmets,) and lastly we are about to see very dangerous times globally.

But in hope, that the hobby will be stimulated for at least the next 20 years. for those of us who are collectors, that at these price I am about mention, things will move again, when m43 are $250, em visors $450, officers visors $550-850, generals/ss officers visors $2000-2500. I know I would buy without thinking twice, if I was in the market for something based on this price range. Just my opinion for what is worth.

But at the end of the day, I am collector and will collect what I like, but will not overpay for something, I will walk away and wait. I will buy what I can justify, as reasonable for a hobby. For me I hold a collection within a price range, in relation to my overall financial position in life, for me a $35-$50k collection is my range that I am comfortable with and can justify to myself, should it become of no or little dollar value in the future.

I think most people would be like me, don't likely throwing away or loosing their hard earn money, Hence they are thinking, why am I paying so much for this stuff, when it is meant to be a hobby, and soon could be worthless(possibly) , am not that stupid,(NO), so I will stop buying and enjoy what I have. Maybe add a special piece every so often, when the price is right.

Thank you all for your time, I hope have not wasted it with my thoughts.
Warmest regards to all
Wayne

[stonemint]

I think a lot of collectors view the state of the hobby through the limited prism of the e-stand. I agree, common hats in average to above-average condition are not selling for what they were prior to 2008, and people grow frustrated when they cannot recoup the price they paid then in 2015.

On the flip side, the excellent to mint items (especially pre-war/early war) seem to not only have held their value, but prices have increased.

Also, the civil/political visors seem to be holding their own--I am still stunned, shocked and amazed that the Reichsbahn red-top and LW doorman visors went for $3K in the HH auction last year. Seems like there has been a shift towards that area from WH.

It also seems like visors are doing well price-wise in auctions such as Gottliebs and HH. There is even an HJ Officer visor that is currently north of $4K in the Grenadier Auction.

[stonemint]

I forgot to add that another market is even tighter than TR--that is Weimar and Imperial. Finding Reichswehr visors in even average condition is a b**tch, and prices are escalating there.

Imperial visors in excellent condition are also getting harder to find of late, most likely due to the advent of the 100th anniversary of the start of the Great War.

[R.Beck]

The good news in all this is that your not seeing desperation among collectors in the soft cap field aside from your run of the mill Heer caps, which I think is why we're not seeing scarce or rare caps hit the open market. Guys are holding onto their gems for now and awaiting this obvious downturn.

I for one have hit the breaks on my buying for now and very content on what I currently have. That's not to say that I won't be jumping on that next hard to find cap that hits the market.

[stonemint]

Ron, good point.

I will add that at least from a visor perspective, the fakes are not up to how they were made wartime, and 98% of them can be rooted out quickly.

The only fakes I consider "dangerous" are the one-off ground-up fakes using original materials--however, fakers can't make just one to turn a profit--another always turns up in short order.

So, in that sense, visor collecting is one of the less-dangerous areas to collect of militaria.

[stonemint]

I was reading this thread about some high-end (and apparently very high-priced) daggers for sale on the e-stand. The seller bought them from a west-coast dealer.

My question is, has anyone bought a visor from a high-end dealer, and then tried to re-sell that same item back to the dealer?

If so, what did the dealer offer in terms of a buy-back price?